Headline news about Nigeria is scary. But the trend lines of implementation of domestic and foreign public policies, and their emerging outcomes are showing progress. Governing is not magic or miracle. Everything that’s good takes time. To change and to build to last, much time is needed. So, what are the trend lines? These are about ten trend lines discussed succinctly below without any particular order.
First, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is healthy and strong against predictions and wishes of his detractors. He is experienced, prepared, determined and performing. The President is leading, listening, accountable and open minded. Leadership affects everything, and President Tinubu is providing effective leadership. Thank God the President is hale and hearty. With his health, he can continue to bring his wealth of experience to bear on Nigeria’s issues.
Second, Nigeria’s economy didn’t collapse under the shortage of foreign exchange. The exchange rate is averaging about $1 to N1500 and the administration is using all tools in the box to tame the attendant inflation. Ostensibly, for the first time, the government is determined to allow market forces to determine the rate. The government should be applauded for holding firm. Policy makers and Nigerians must be realistic, the most likely equilibrium exchange is $1 to N1500 in the short term, ceteris paribus. Upward review of salary negotiation should be based on this most likely exchange rate. It can be assumed, that from short to medium term, this exchange rate will rationalize unproductive and frivolous imports and foreign exchange allocation.
Third, the removal of subsidy on petrol remains. Many were calling for policy reversal, but the administration stuck with it. Savings due to this policy have two clear advantages: national consumption of petrol is halved from almost 60 million liters to 30 million per day and stoppage of the undue enrichment of the unscrupulous players in the petroleum business. If $10 billion was used for subsidies annually by the previous administration, this is a gain of $5 billion for President Tinubu’s administration. The curtailment of $5 billion wasteful subsidy, is a huge loss to those that have been cheating Nigerians.
Fourth, revenue allocations to the three- tiers of government have substantially increased because of the surpluses from exchange rate used to calculate the budget and the removal of petroleum subsidy.
Fifth, Nigeria hasn’t reneged or failed in its debt obligations and the government of President Tinubu was not wasting time running around the Paris Club and international financial institutions for debt forgiveness. Debt serving is an overhang on the Nigerian economy. Savings from petrol subsidy is more than half of the annual debt serving amount allocated in the 2024 budget. Without the removal of subsidies, the country’s economy would have been on the verge of collapse.
Sixth, President Tinubu’s strategic bilateral engagements of India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and now Qatar is a positive foreign policy. Avoiding enlisting into BRICS is a guided financial and foreign policy. However, the news had it that Nigeria applied for BRICS membership. It is the opinion of this article that the administration should wait a while more before becoming a full member of BRICS. Is there any reason why no EU members have joined BRICS yet? Yes, Nigeria is a sovereign nation, nevertheless, considering the long relationships with the West, and the leading role of Nigeria in Africa, a great deal of caution is necessary before full membership in BRICS. International relations requires balancing political equities. President Tinubu is yet to make official visits to the US and China, and he must carefully prioritize visits to the US despite upcoming US elections in November. Goodenough, President Tinubu met with President Biden during the General Assembly meeting in September 2023.
Seventh, there’s no negative fallout of military coups in neighboring West African countries. The coups didn’t have a negative contagion effect on Nigeria. Indeed, President Tinubu recently ordered the reopening of the borders with Niger Republic which was closed after the military coup. The President’s strategic appointment of security chiefs across the six geopolitical zones is masterful. Domestic security is showing improvement despite the shameful abductions and kidnapping in some parts of the North. In some respects, the abductions and kidnapping appear to have political undertones. A positive trend on security is the discussion on mobilization of traditional mechanisms of community protection in Southwest. This is a veritable detente for would-be invaders, kidnappers and abductors. The Southeast and South-South zones are witnessing improved security
Eight, reforms at CBN, establishment of the Tripartite Economic Council and ongoing salary adjustments for civil servants are indications of positive trends. Leading Professors, Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises must be included in the Economic Council. The Nigerian Billionaire Club doesn’t have answers to ground-up economic growth. The completion of the repairs of Port Harcourt Refinery was a major achievement. Let’s remember that the Turn-Around-Maintenance (TAM) of refineries had not been implemented adequately since Abacha’s time. Prior to President Tinubu, Five Presidents/Head of State did not prioritize refurbishment of the refineries. What a difference.
Ninth, the absence of nationwide strike action due to constant engagement of the labor organizations is a positive trend. Hoodlums have been waiting on the sidelines to hijack nationwide demonstrations.
Tenth, the challenge to the Executive Council to perform or be replaced seems to be working. Prompt suspension of the Humanitarian Minister jolted the system. The investigation and media updates on CBN under Governor Emefiele are of newsworthy interest to the larger voting majority who feels something is being done.
Finally, President Tinubu’s administration must be appreciated for taking these bold steps that are leading Nigeria in the positive direction. Nigerians must exercise patience and the administration must continuously inform the public. Better years are ahead for Nigeria and her citizens.